i think you are right about that. as far as the senate races, we believe dean heller will defeat shelley berkeley. it will be close. the democrats are doing well. we believe president obama will in nevada and the hispanic vote plays a big role. an upset is not unheard of, given these circumstances. i would not rule out berkeley entirely, by any means, but i think dean heller will manage to win a close election because he's the incumbent. as far as missouri, we kept that open for a while. let's be honest, the republicans are apoplectic about todd akin. the republicans managed in their primary to find the the one candidate who could've lost to claire mccaskill. mitt romney is going to win 55% in missouri this year. i think any respectable republican who did not put both feet in his mouth would have carried that race. we now think claire mccaskill has a lead to a large enough to survive the romney landslide in missouri. also, there is a libertarian on the ballot there. that percentage will surprise you. that's where a lo